The Best Hedge Against a Currency is Another Currency – Not Gold

Gold bugs are keen on posing the likely inflationary collapse of a currency as the main reason to invest in Gold.  Only a few months ago many were still predicting the likely collapse in the Dollar, now investors in half of the emerging economies and Russia and dumping everything to buy safe dollar assets.

Of you fear a currency is overvalued you buy another currency.  Its only rational to invest in Gold (or crypto currencies) if you think all currencies are overvalued.  Only likely to be the case if most of the world currencies pursue a debt monetarisation strategy, which most central banks are banned from doing anyway.

Its a theoretical but very unlikely possibility.  It is possible that another global collapse of asset prices and unpayable debts will force creation of helicopter money to bail out banks, but this would not be new money that circulates, rather it simply readjusts the overall price level to that it was before the collapse in asset prices, spending would continue as it was before, it would not be inflationary.  The Bank bailouts after 2007 were hardly inflationary were they.

If anyone can think of a realistic scenario where all currencies would hyperinflate at once then please add it in the comments, if not then there is not a rational case for a gold or crypto currency hedge.  Buy land, buy frozen concentrated orange juice buy anything, but don’t buy gold whose real asset value will always simply track the real demand fro it in manufacturing and so will be a bad cyclical hedge against global contagion.


One thought on “The Best Hedge Against a Currency is Another Currency – Not Gold

  1. Quite correct. Gold bugs and Austrian/Libertarian economists and pundits will be severely disappointed when governments confiscate/devalue the gold they think has spared them the chaos that is inevitable unless we pay off/cancel the debts that will reset the system. Then, if we have a scrap of Wisdom, we won’t just fall back into the unstable system of continual debt build up and rule by self interested elites, but implement a Distributive system which places the power of economic policy squarely into the many hands of individuals and quarantees adequate aggregate demand in an age of increasing efficiency of (labor) costs as innovation and artificial intelligence wed to profit making systems will logically do. All economists and their pundits are nascent social crediters. Give it up and do the Wise and ethical thing anf get on the bandwagon of social credit.

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