Channel 4 News – Garry Gibbon – Government’s ‘Operation Thunder’ Planning and Supply Side reform to ‘calm markets’ unlikley to Pass Commons as MPs No Longer Trust Truss Competancy

Libe on tonights news – confirming our exclusive yesterday that the sweep all planning and red tape controls – 6 announcments in 6 weeks – was called ‘ Operation Thunder’ after the carpet bombing of peasents in Vietnam. Did the original Operation Thunder win the war? No it lost it. Doesnt Kwateng have a PhD in History?

If it Slips..If It Chafes..If it Gripes then

Politico Reports Government is calling new Programme of Supply Side and Planning Reforms ‘Operation Thunder’ After Nixon’s Bombing of Vietnam

From Emilio Casalicchio at Politico

National Parks – heres comes the B52 carpet Bombing, Agent Orenge and Napalm

“Relax key national and local policy requirements” in Investment Zones, How it might work, Which Parts of the NPPF will Go

In another post ill do adetailed drill downs on process, and developers contributions – but first policy

Saterdays Investment Zomes Guidance

For developments in the early stages of planning, and to encourage new development to come forward, there will be a new faster and more streamlined consent to grant planning permission. This consent will reduce many of the burdensome requirements which has made the planning of large sites slower and more complex than it should be, to enable developers to bring forward good quality development which responds to the market. In particular, we will:

• remove burdensome EU requirements which create paperwork and stall development but do not necessarily protect the environment;
• focus developer contributions on essential infrastructure requirements;
• reduce lengthy consultation with statutory bodies; and
• relax key national and local policy requirements.

Key planning policies to ensure developments are well designed, maintain national policy on the Green Belt, protect our heritage, and address flood risk, highway and other public safety matters – along with building regulations – will continue to apply.

All Investment Zones will have a mandate to boost growth; in Zones, the planning system will not stand in the way of investment and development.

This is a familiar list compare footnote 7 of the NPPF, I bolden where there is a crossover

The policies referred to are those in this Framework (rather than those in development plans) relating to: habitats sites (and those sites listed in paragraph 181) and/or designated as Sites of Special Scientific Interest; land designated as Green Belt, Local Green Space, an Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, a National Park (or within the Broads Authority) or defined as Heritage Coast; irreplaceable habitats; designated heritage assets (and other heritage assets of archaeological interest referred to in footnote 68); and areas at risk of flooding or coastal change.

Some ommissions (such as areas at risk of coastal change) may have just been missed in the rush as well as areas having equivalent status (such as MOL and LGS) as Green Belt, but leaving out natural sites seem deliberate.

The addition of ‘other public safety matters’ seems an acknowledgement of a flaw in the NPPF, as some areas such as public safety ziones at airports, nuclear and major hazard zones have a presumption against in circulars not controlled by the department. Similarly if safety is supposed to be everyone stop priority, why not fire evacuation safety and highway safety? So expect some changes in the revised NPPF.

Also with the LURB Bill Design had to be in the top tier, though this risks every tilted balence case being refused on drummed up fake design grounds (‘not in keeping with the area’ etc.).

Well we know the attempt to dissplay and water down nature controls, probably a petrobillionair driven intervention and a allergic reaction of Brexiters to anything originating from Europe, and catching SSSIs (which dont) in the wake – I have heard rumors fro the civil service of one senior minister saying SSSIs that arnt national network (Habitat directive) sites should only get protection as they are the only ones which are properly British (how dumb can you get). Though the strength of the NFU lobbby against any natural controls (contrast with CLBA policy) is also a major factor.

Surely National Parks and AONBS were ommitted by mistake? Seems not as large areas of national parks and AONB appear in the offical Freeports Maps, and the climate destroying 55 Tufton Street funding billionair petrodollars billionaires who run this lot lomng want to shot down thse controls top open up areas for fracking, just like they campaigned to open up national parks and federal lands in the states. Its all in the plan. The Tuton Street mafia have long viewed National Parks as a collectivist socialist stalinist Atlle Government intervention with its nonsense of rights to access other peoples land.

So lets look at every other paragraph in the NPPF, not relating to these contraints which would now be dissplied

Though as the government admits this would require primary legislation not just changes to the NPPF or new NPPG.

Part 3 Local Plans

Paras 55-58 Planning Conditions and Obligations – where they dont apply to the new top tier of controls

Part 5 Housing and Affordable Housing

Part 8 Community Facilities (no such thing as communities) and Open Space

Para 87 Sequential Test for Main Centre uses (now impossible to define with Class E)

Part 9 Sustainable Transport (s106 for cycling and buses how woke) – Para 111 on severe traffic congestion seemingly notimportant.

Part 11 Making Effective Use of Land, Meeting the challenge of climate change, flooding and coastal change (climate Change not a priority issue), except flood risk

Part 15 Conserving and enhancing the natural environment

Part 17 Facilitating the sustainable use of minerals (apart from new renewables, and Oil, gas and coal exploration and extraction)

Of course Ministers will deny any and all of these, whilst proposing Henry IIX clauses to allow them to diapply any and aall of tehse (same tactic with Habiat regs.

A good question journas can ask is ‘Mintser is a copy of the NPPF and a blue maarker – please strike out those parts that will no longer apply in investment ones.

A final though will this work like HDT ‘presumption’ ie. planning balence tips fulling in favour of approval even on unallocated sites – with other material consideration tipping other way

Of like an SPZ or zonuing, where other material considerarions dont apply and you might not even get prior approval – unless possibly for design review (which is notthe Japenese stle zoning that Truss like so much)?

We will see.

Covid, Brexit, Truss and Ukraine War Have Made the 2026 House Price Crash come 4 years early – here’s why

Here the theory, there are lots of theories of long waves in house prices (Homer Hoyts is my favorite) but Fred Harrisons is most well known.

There is an 18 year business cycle observed empirically and a 14 year house price cycle within that. This can be observed from epirical data going back centuries.

But why?

I’ve tried to explain the 14-year periodicity of the housing market in terms of the 5% interest rate, rate of return on mortgages, historically, the average in the long run, which gives us a payback period of 14 years. And when people stop taking out mortgages, when prices have been driven up as high as they can go, according to levels of income at the time, the whole house of cards collapses. I posed this 5% theory in a book in 2005.

Fred hypothesises theri are typically tax cuts at the end of a cycle which get capitalised into house prices, which peak and then crash.

What is unusual about the last four years is Covid, Brexit and Ukraine have knocked points off GDP, government borrowing has filled the gap – capaitalised into house price rises, with the downturn coming earlier because of an interest rates rise to fund the extra debt, protect the pound and control infation – caused in part and at precisely the wrong time in the house price cycle – by tax cuts.

Markets panicked. The prescription was that a weakened post-brexit UK was too weak to afford the borrowing, even as a sovereign currency issuer, as it had a long term balence of payments deficit. Living beyond its means for years. prompting a sought of mini emerging economy currency crisis. A small scale version of the economic collapse in Sri Lanka. Noahopinion sets out the theory well.

callling this a “crisis” might be a bit overblown compared to what, say, Sri Lanka is experiencing, but unless things improve quickly, British people are in for tougher times ahead. The crash came on suddenly, but it had its roots in long-standing, chronic economic weaknesses. And the country’s leaders seem paralyzed, flummoxed, and utterly unprepared. So I guess using the word “crisis” here is acceptable.
So what is happening to the British economy, and why? The easiest way to understand this, I think, is to analyze this episode as a milder, gentler version of the kind of crisis that tends to plague emerging markets.

Timothy Ash of Blubay Asset Management explains as follows:

Welcome to today’s Britain, a mature G7 country, where it all sounds very emerging market.

The United Kingdom’s economy has deep structural problems, and a fundamental lack of competitiveness as reflected in a current account deficit of over 8 percent of GDP. Years of underinvestment in public services, education, housing and transport have left a poorly skilled and regionally immobile labor force struggling to fill the gaps left by the departure of foreign workers, which was caused by the ruling party’s nationalist agenda.

Similarly, years of underinvestment in the energy infrastructure has left the economy dependent on energy imports and, with little storage capacity, dependent on the vagaries of global spot prices. Inflation is rising, living standards are falling and workers are striking for higher wages. A wage-price spiral looms….

Predictably, the market has been unconvinced by the new government’s dash-for-growth economic policy. Borrowing costs for the government have risen, making its macro forecasts now appear unsustainable. Everything is unraveling, and talk of crisis is in the air.

With the bond vigilantes out in force – the Bank of England may be forced to riase interest rates. This panics mortgage lenders who have ceased lending.

Into this mix enters the key concept of the credit impulse (or credit accelerator) on which I have writen articles on here with dozens of equations as it is the key leading indicator of the business cycle

Saxo

[it is the] leading indicator for growth, the global credit impulse, flashes a warning to major economies. IIt tracks the flow of new credit issued by the private sector as a percentage of GDP [or can be mesured as GDP +delta debt]…

The notion of Credit Impulse was introduced for the first time by Michael Biggs in November 2008. The Credit Impulse represents the flow of new credit issued from the private sector as a percentage of GDP. It is the second derivative of credit growth and arguably the largest driver behind economic growth.

The thinking behind Credit Impulse is based on basic Keynesian economics. Since spending is a flow, it should be compared with net new lending, also a flow, rather than credit outstanding, a stock.

The main advantage of Credit Impulse is that it helps to solve a number of conundrums that cannot be explained by an analysis focusing on the stock of credit. In addition, it has been demonstrated that, for many time periods and countries, a strong correlation exists between Credit Impulse and other economic data, especially private sector demand, and financial assets.

For a morre thorough grounding on the concept in macro see the many books of my Friend Professor Steve Keen, about the only guy who predicted the 2007 crash.

The Credit Impulse helps explain the ‘merging markets’ aspect of the British crisis. Normally higher interest rates strengthen currencies, in emerging markets they can weaken them because of risk of debt default. Therefore you cant just look art the overall credit impulse, you have to split it into public and private components, and look at real debt repayment costs in the currency of the debt issuer. in the short run it is the flow of debt not stock that swings markets and prices of credit. Indeed my own theory of interest rates the LP-RL model can fully explain this – This I think is the only key weakness in Modern Monetary Theory, sovereign currency issuers can default because of the weakness of their currency. Indeed any more MMT really only applies to the dollar, possibly no longer even the euro, certainly not the pound.

So at a time the impulse is pointing down, with exquisite timing makes it crash down. Within 6 months expect a house price crash as the impulse is a leading indicator.

Kwateng may go down as making the worst economic mistake at precisely the wrong time in history – except perhaps John Law, who Kwateng did his PhD on.

Oh No Starmer to Relaunch Help to Buy – He is just copying housing policies from 2019 Conservative Manifesto

Everyone agreed it pushed prices up and was just a state subsidy to large housebuilder profits, on a day of dumb housing policies could it get any more dumb

Mirror

Keir Starmer will vow to get 1.5million more people on the housing ladder as he proclaims Labour as the party of home ownership.

He will say: “If we want fair growth everywhere, communities need a stake. And they need good affordable housing for working people to own.

“Under the Tories, the dream of owning your own home is slipping away for too many. And that’s a political choice.

“So we will set a new target – 70% home ownership.” [too high as it makes to many low income people vulnerable to a balence sheet recession – which Kwatng as triggered now as the credit impulse collapses – and lose everything]

Labour will help first-time buyers onto the property ladder by introducing a new mortgage guarantee scheme so people do not have to save up for large deposits. [Like Help to Buy – the daftest housing policy ever]

The government’s own analysis shows saving for a deposit is “the largest hurdle for most prospective home buyers”.

Mr Starmer is concerned that house prices are rising at a particularly fast pace in some big cities such as London and Manchester because foreign investors are buying vast numbers of homes, only to leave them empty. (a year late on this Sunaks changes led to a collpse in invetment market)

To tackle this, Labour would raise stamp duty paid by foreign individuals, trusts and companies when they buy UK residential property. This should help reduce speculative pressures in the most lucrative markets.

BTW 1.5 million is just 300,000 x 5.

So basically Starmer will say he will repeat the two housing policies in the last 2019 Conservative Manifesto – what party is he leading?

A Second Investment Zone Prospectus – Published, on Saturday!

Suggests things so rapidly moving civils servent at the department worked overnight Friday – so missed this one

DHLUC/Treasury Guidance

Introduction

This document sets out the in-principle policy offer from the government to all Mayoral Combined Authorities (MCA) and Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLA) in England, who will work in partnership with their relevant constituent or district councils, that would like to introduce an Investment Zone in their area. Whilst we expect this offer to be UK-wide, how Investment Zones can operate in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is subject to work with devolved governments.

The government envisages working in partnership with places across the country together to get the United Kingdom working, building and growing. Investment Zones will accelerate the housing and infrastructure the UK needs to drive economic growth. They will cut back unnecessary bureaucratic requirements and processes and red tape that slow down development, [most of which the tories introduced – in power 12 years] cut taxes to back business, and, as a result, attract new investment to create jobs.

The government has progressed conversations with stakeholders ahead of this announcement to shape the policy detail and support rapid delivery. This has helped to identify 38 MCAs and UTLAs who could potentially set up Investment Zones. These MCAs, and UTLAs where there is no MCA, will now have the opportunity to complete a full Expression of Interest to submit to the government. This will launch shortly and will be open to all MCAs, and UTLAs where there is no MCA, across England, regardless of discussions to date. Further detail on the Expression of Interest MCAs and UTLAs will be invited to complete will be set out shortly. Existing Freeports will also be able to apply, should they wish to do so. The government wants to immediately support those who are prepared to deliver now.

The government will look to introduce primary legislation in order to enable the offer on tax and simplified regulations. The final offer will be subject to the passage of that legislation through parliament. {why not simplifed everywhere – reason few voters libe in industrial estates in Cornwall or Diss – all hype liitle substance]

Investment Zones

The government envisages that Investment Zones will be one or more specific sites within an MCA or UTLA where a variety of tax, regulatory innovations and flexibilities, and planning simplifications will apply within those site’s boundaries.

As MCAs and UTLAs consider coming forward to express interest in pursuing Investment Zones with the government, they should consider which sites will best drive a substantial contribution to the UK’s economic growth and a significant acceleration of delivery of additional housing. There is a strong expectation that Investment Zones will bring forward additional development, and that they bring forward a mix of both commercial and residential development. Both of these will be considered in the EOI assessment process. [ but zero incentive to put forward additional housing zones, without new ones no net new growth that wouldnt have already happended, all you are doing is burning up a too small land supply more quickly]..

Sites may be aligned with existing local growth strategies and transport plans. Sites that already have a masterplan, development order or outline permission could be considered by MCAs and UTLAs as a potential Investment Zone, as could sites where planning consents are not yet in place. Development sites where planning simplifications apply may be co-located with, or separate to, tax sites, depending on what makes most sense for the local economy.

The government is committed to tackling barriers to growth across the United Kingdom.

As this is a UK-wide mission, we will work in partnership with devolved governments and other stakeholders to agree how we can use our levers to deliver Investment Zones in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland.

In Scotland, we will work with the Scottish Government to agree the interaction between Investment Zones and the Scottish Green Freeports competition in which we’ve had expressions of interests from 5 areas.

In Wales, a competition is currently underway to deliver the Freeports programme as set out in the Prospectus published jointly with the Welsh Government. This work leaves us well placed for fast-paced discussions Investment Zones.

We welcome investment proposals for Northern Ireland, and will work with the devolved administration and local partners to maximise the significant investment we have made in Northern Ireland’s research and innovation strengths through the city deals across the Belfast Region, Derry-Londonderry & Strabane, Causeway Coast & Glens and Mid South West by identifying suitable sites such as the Belfast Innovation District.

Speeding up planned development and simplifying new opportunities

The government wants to do everything possible to streamline and accelerate delivery of high-quality development for jobs and homes. When proposals come forward for Investment Zones, they will benefit from a liberalised planning process. [what does this mean zoning, we know zoning desont work without sytrategic planning, masterplanning and design codes, nowhere in world does it work without these]

For developments in the early stages of planning, and to encourage new development to come forward, there will be a new faster and more streamlined consent to grant planning permission. This consent will reduce many of the burdensome requirements [which ones] which has made the planning of large sites slower and more complex than it should be, to enable developers to bring forward good quality development which responds to the market [err like design control, what are we talking about here? Are we sying look more like china, bad development buildt quickly falling down quickly?]. In particular, we will:

• remove burdensome EU requirements which create paperwork and stall development but do not necessarily protect the environment;
• focus developer contributions on essential infrastructure requirements;
• reduce lengthy consultation with statutory bodies; and
• relax key national and local policy requirements.

Key planning policies to ensure developments are well designed, maintain national policy on the Green Belt, protect our heritage, and address flood risk, highway and other public safety matters – along with building regulations – will continue to apply. [but which ones wont – which parts of the NPPF wont, will local plans survive in these areas, these are already all of the footnote 7 areas disspalying presumption?]

For developments which already have permission, we will work with developers and local planning authorities to ensure planning is not a barrier to the accelerated delivery of these sites.  All Investment Zones will have a mandate to boost growth; in Zones, the planning system will not stand in the way of investment and development. [what does this means – all conditions and section 106s diapplied – there goes planning balence – very lawful – sounds like spotty Treasory 22 year olds dictatingt o Dept as always happens when Treasury is in driving seart who thought it wasnt Treasury about to be abolished for making bad decisions?]

Where relevant, a development corporation or a dedicated delivery vehicle could be established, providing it does not slow down development. We would expect MCAs and UTLAs proposing Investment Zones to fund these [err wasnt the government funding these as in the £64 million to Sheffield and Milton Keynes, how do you afford to fund a city doubling population of a city like MK without funding or land value capture for a DC?] MCAs and UTLAs will also need to demonstrate that they have business sponsors ready to lead and drive investment opportunities. The government will explore the necessary delivery arrangements further with places that come forward.

Time-limited tax incentives

Specified sites in England could benefit from a range of time-limited tax incentives over 10 years. The tax incentives under consideration are:

1. Business Rates – 100% relief from business rates on newly occupied business premises, and certain existing businesses where they expand in English Investment Zone tax sites. Councils hosting Investment Zones will receive 100% of the business rates growth in designated sites above an agreed baseline for 25 years.

2. Enhanced Capital Allowance – 100% first year allowance for companies’ qualifying expenditure on plant and machinery assets for use in tax sites.

3. Enhanced Structures and Buildings Allowance – accelerated relief to allow businesses to reduce their taxable profits by 20% of the cost of qualifying non-residential investment per year, relieving 100% of their cost of investment over 5 years.

4. Employer National Insurance contributions relief – zero-rate Employer NICs on salaries of any new employee working in the tax site for at least 60% of their time, on earnings up to £50,270 per year, with Employer NICs being charged at the usual rate above this level.

5. Stamp Duty Land Tax– a full SDLT relief for land and buildings bought for use or development for commercial purposes, and for purchases of land or buildings for residential developers.

Infrastructure and development

The government wants to back local leaders to ensure that their Zones can innovate, and have the infrastructure and skilled workforce they need. The full offer the government will be able to make will depend on discussions with MCAs and UTLAs about the requirements of their Investment Zone. We want local leaders to be ambitious and use all available tools to unleash the full potential and would consider;

• Wider support for local growth: for example, through greater control over local growth funding for areas with appropriate governance. Subject to demonstrating readiness, Mayoral Combined Authorities hosting Investment Zones will receive a single local growth settlement in the next Spending Review period.
• Strategic direction over affordable housing fund: including how it is used, with flexibility to acquire and regenerate derelict and empty housing consistent with the strategic aims of the fund.
• Prioritised access to infrastructure funding: for example, this could potentially include the remaining circa £1.3 billion Brownfield Infrastructure Fund where additional development can be delivered at pace. [all sensible deveolution staff as proposed for County Deals]

Investment Zones and Freeports

Freeports have established local partnerships, governance, robust business plans and development sites and so are ideally placed to capitalise on the new Investment Zones offer to deliver investment, jobs, and growth if they want to do so. This will not only ensure that those Freeports that want to are able to build on the successes they have had to date by accelerating investment in their areas, but that both programmes complement one another.

The government will work with Freeport Boards and local partners involved in current and prospective Freeports to consider whether and how the Investment Zones offer can help to support their objectives, as part of the wider process for identifying Investment Zones. This will ensure that both programmes complement one another.

Next steps

The government recognises that further detail is required on provisions and mechanisms for delivery. We intend to do this in discussion with MCAs and UTLAs who come forward. The guiding mission is that Investment Zones will get the United Kingdom working, building and growing, and get spades in the ground.

We know that MCAs and UTLAs will have many potential sites in mind that could make up an Investment Zone. We will set out further detailed criteria that sites will need to meet with the launch of the Expression of Interest process under the following broad themes:

• Potential to increase long-term UK economic growth for example through addressing housing need, unlocking commercial sites, or attracting inward investment.
• Local capacity and capability for example (but not limited to) the presence of a Mayoral Combined Authority, willingness to use development corporations, and places which have the ability to trial new policies.
• Readiness to deliver Investment Zones in order to generate economic growth in short order and address the ongoing crisis.
• Alignment with other significant investments such as HS2 rail stations to ensure critical mass and greater growth opportunities.

The government’s expectation for MCAs, and UTLAs where there is no MCA – who will work in partnership with their relevant constituent or district councils – coming forwards with proposals in this Expression of Interest period is that as an absolute minimum they will:

• Agree that Investment Zone benefits will be conditional on MCAs, UTLAs and local partners honouring the commitments made in the EOI and subsequent negotiation and, and on local consent and Parliamentary approval of any legislation. [i.e. agree to what we tell you in negotiations and what parliment later tells us- hmm]
• Investment Zones will also be conditional on complying with Subsidy Control and the Public Sector Equality Duty.
• Work with the government to agree suitable governance mechanisms for any potential Investment Zone; and for the complementary functions.
• Work with the government to agree suitable accountability and readiness arrangements as part of any potential Investment Zones.
• Demonstrate how an Investment Zone will meet the MCAs and UTLA’s own objectives, including in relation to transport, regeneration, economic growth, and tackling local challenges.
• Provide metrics of success closely aligned with the growth and housing ambitions of the programme to the government.

This is not a prospectus design to attract takers – except in industrial estates. In housing areas for growth it seems designed to as far as possible put off all takers – it is utterly toxic on land not yet allocated for growth, and those that are – in removing all controls and policy – the last thing you want in an investment zone. Dinsterested zone is more like it.

Kwateng and Truss Assaulting the Habitats Directive Minefield

Bond Vigilantes Force UK Treasury Today into Radical Planning Reform and Loosening Immigration Controls – Growth Plan Only lasted One Day on Markets

Panic Mode

As the pound plunged to lowest value ever – as Bond Vigilantes struck having no confidence that the forecast free massive boost in government dent, and supply changes changes with no forecast of whether they would work, the markets were panicing as there was no security for the market that inflation would not sprial at the same time that government debt would not spiral, at a time when gilts would be forced to sellat ever higher prices dur to risk premium and at a time when the Bank of England forced to compensate for reckless macro-economic policy forces interest rates up to defend the pound – as otherwise a falling pound would cayse an inflationary spiral as import prices rise, and risking a downward spiral – like an emerging economy – like Britain was in the 1970s – ending in an IMF bailout and massive austerity.

In this panic mode the Tresasury put out an emergency statement at 5.30 today designed to reassure the Bond Vigilanties.

Treasury Update on Growth Plan (also it didnt last a weekend did it?)

On Friday 23 September, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, the Rt Hon Kwasi Kwarteng MP, set out how the government would fulfil its commitment to cut taxes for people and businesses and announced wider supply side policies to grow the economy.

Building on this, as the Growth Plan set out on Friday, Cabinet Ministers will announce further supply side growth measures in October and early November, including changes to the planning system, business regulations, childcare, immigration, agricultural productivity, and digital infrastructure.

Next month, the Chancellor will, as part of that programme, outline regulatory reforms to ensure the UK’s financial services sector remains globally competitive.

He will then set out his Medium-Term Fiscal Plan on 23 November.

The Fiscal Plan will set out further details on the government’s fiscal rules, including ensuring that debt falls as a share of GDP in the medium term.

In the Growth Plan on Friday, the Chancellor set out that there would be an Office for Budget Responsibility forecast this calendar year. He has requested that the OBR sets out a full forecast alongside the Fiscal Plan, on 23 November.

As the Chief Secretary to the Treasury set out this weekend, the government is sticking to spending settlements for this spending review period.

The Chancellor also confirmed that there will be a Budget in the Spring, with a further OBR forecast.

Yes ypu heard that right. More immigration. At a time of near full employmenbt the only way GDP can grow is more immigrants = more wge owners,= a multiplier effect and more consumer expensiture leding to more growth.

PLanning reforms back on agenda.

The first weathervane u-turn an OBR forecast.

The announcment didnt clam the markets the pound fell further.

I planned this blog to be a very academic article on the ‘Treasury View’ which in recent years was morbid fear of Bond Vigilantes raising borrowing costs. The old Treasury view, attributed to Ralph Hawtry (greatest son of Slough, Keynes Great friend and sparring partner) was that public spending would crown out private spending. Both views are based on similar foundations, and those who argue the opposite like MMT theorists make same mistake. The old Treasury view was never true in a recession, the new Treasury view is only true when markets are in turmoil. Both make the mistake of judging economic forecasts on crude views of accounting identies, rather than a sophisticated view, bounded by sectoral balences and accounting identities, of how the market adjusts to expected changes and the dynamics of how when markets shift in nominal terms from changes to inflation and the weighted value of a currency, and hence the speculated value of investments. You cant argue solely from a sctoral balence and an accounting identity, it is the dyanics of change of those identities that matter (equally you make similar mistke arguing without them) and how feedback and multiplier effects impact in the monetary economy and the revaluation of company and household assets.

It all rather pathetic, the right we wrong said a most boost to spending would cause teh vigilantes to pounce are forced into reverse gear when they propose a vastly higher increase in public spoending after claiming the Treasury view – which was their only defence against state spending – as wromng all along. They created the situation, market tourmoil, which iss the only case when the new Teasury view in right. The markets found out the bullshiot economics of claiming 10 different incompatible and posite policies persued at once was alright. As it always would

What is a bond vigilante: those who spculate on government debrt pounching on uncertainty to make superprofits when in their herd like behavious they spot unsustinable macroeconomic mistakes by governments.

Think Nigel Lawson singing in the Bath on Black Wednesday as Sorbos bet against the pounds and earned billions.

Today the markets smell bolld, like sharks when a surfer deliberately cuts themsleves to prove their machismo.

Yahoo

Paul Donovan, the chief economist at UBS, said investors now viewed the Tory party as a “doomsday cult”. 

As I keep arguing on here, Truss doesnt want to win, its all about performance art – and hence blaming god when the world didnt come to an end on a certain day

How lomg till the IMF are called in? Outside the Eu the UK is now just yet another weak, unsustainable emerging economy, forced into Barber Boom/Healy style cycle of inflationary boom and decline with the IMF forced to bail them out – probably early next year.

FT Uk Lenders Pause new Mortgaes during Market Turmoil

When the Credit Impulse goes down, a recession always follows, if it collapses housing market we get the worst kind of spirlling down debt-deflation recesion – as we saw in 2007. Usually a once in every other gneration phenomena – not this time, the lessons was never learned and we made it far harder not easier to buld housing.

@KwasiKwarteng and Government make Four Totally Contradictory Statements on Environment Controls in Investment Zones in Three Days – No Wonder RSPB, WWF and National Trust are on War Footing #ironweatervane blows in wind

He cant win this one – they have 10 time more members. Expect a u-turn before parliament resits

Lying on Laura Kuenssberg]

“We’re not going to relax environmental rules,” the UK chancellor told BBC One’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg show, arguing the only aim was to reduce red tape.

“What the prime minister and I are focused on is the process. Too often in this country the process just takes too long. It doesn’t mean that you change the standards, but the process of the paperwork and actually getting consents is taking too long. And that, as you’ll appreciate, is an obstacle to growth.”

Mini Budget Green Book

Accelerated development – there will be designated development sites to deliver growth and
housing. Where planning applications are already in flight, they will be streamlined and we will work
with sites to understand what specific measures are needed to unlock growth, including disapplying
legacy EU red tape where appropriate

Press release on his speech

New legislation will cut barriers and restrictions, making it quicker to plan and build new roads, speeding up the deployment of energy infrastructure like offshore wind farms and streamlining environmental assessments and regulations. (not stremaline not dissaply)

New Bill Released 22nd The Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill 2022

Retained EU Law was never intended to sit on the statute book indefinitely. The time is now right to end the special status of retained EU Law in the UK statute book on 31st December 2023. The Bill will abolish this special status and will enable the Government, via Parliament to amend more easily, repeal and replace retained EU Law. 

By dictat without parluiamentary approvel – yes al of the safegards put into course inthe Envieonment Bill 2021 by Gove including setting up a new watchdog are for naught – as Willaim Resse Mogg could ‘dispply’ then automatically on 31st December 2023 or va Henry IIX clauses before then. All the assurances given in many speeeches during passages of the Environment Act 2021 , all of its ‘no derogation caluses’, all assurances given by minister on same point during levelling up bill, not worth paper printed on. No wonder there has been an unprecedented explosion of ourtrage amonst all of the envonmental charities and campaign bodies – far nore than the NPPF.

Look this is nothing about making slightly less silly rules on Newts and Bat Surveys, it is about slashing away all controls on protecting some of the most endnagered species in England. Before European legislation on these there was almost notthing. Its political suicide as it war on Water (the Water Viole) and his chums. Even me as a fan of zoningm, streamlining and Nimbys worst enemy is totally outarged at the American Oilbaron Greeny hating bullshit of it all.

RSPB

In a forcefully worded statement posted on Twitter on Friday, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds in England said plans for changed rules in investment zones “potentially tears up the most fundamental legal protections our remaining wildlife has”.

It said: “Make no mistake, we are angry. This government has today launched an attack on nature. As of today, from Cornwall to Cumbria, Norfolk to Nottingham, wildlife is facing one of the greatest threats it’s faced in decades.”

National Truss

In a statement on Sunday, the head of the National Trust, Hilary McGrady, said that it was “a crucial moment for our natural environment”.

She wrote: “Nature is in decline and we need bold action on climate change. These concerns are shared by the public. Poll upon poll show that further ambition on net zero and nature are widely supported.

“Rather than ramp up action to support our environment, this government appears however to be heading in the opposite direction. Environmental protections are dismissed as ‘burdens’, whilst investment and growth are pitted against nature and climate action.

WWF Twitter

Even Truss’s own Bishop of Norwich worried about Norfolk becoming a ‘pollute what you like where you like when you like’ zone

The Bishop said on Twitter: “Healthy nature underpins a healthy society and a healthy economy. The government seem willing to squander that and it must be stopped.

“I’m deeply concerned by the way the government wants to renege on its climate and nature responsibilities.

Camapaiging groups like @naturesvoice should did listen to what poorly researched bullshit Kuenssberg is fed and never responds too, they have to challenge primary legislation with sunset and Henry IIX powers which could seep away the Environment Act 2021 provisions and even international treaties ion Natire Protection which the UK is a suignatory, including the withdrawl traty.