Back to 2014 base – as we suggested on here was only way out, only done in a way whch simply adds to messiness. More on here soon
Household projections are constrained by housing supply. If new, additional
homes are not supplied, then households cannot form as there would be
nowhere for them to live. This means that actual household growth cannot
exceed the number of additional homes which are actually supplied. The ONS household projections show that the average household size is projected to be2.33 by 2028 compared to 2.27 in the 2014 based household projections; this
means that in order to just keep household size constant at the 2014 based projected level, 64,000 additional homes per year would be needed in excess of the current projections;
2. The historic under-delivery of housing means there is a case for public policy supporting delivery in excess of household projections, even if those projectionfall. Cheshire4 estimated that “between 1994 and 2012, building fell short of what was needed by between 1.6 and 2.3 million houses”. Given that households cannot form if new houses are not built for them to move into, this undersupply will have resulted in pent-up demand;
Hmmm where did that phrase about households not orming unless there are new homes for them to move into come from – try looking back at past posts on this blog.
The Government considers that the best way of responding to the new ONS
household projections and delivering on the three principles in paragraph 18 above is to make three changes:
1. For the short-term, to specify that the 2014-based data will provide the
demographic baseline for assessment of local housing need.
2. To make clear in national planning practice guidance that lower numbers through the 2016-based projections do not qualify as an exceptional circumstance that justifies a departure from the standard methodology; and
3. In the longer term, to review the formula with a view to establishing a new method that meets the principles in paragraph 18 above by the time the next projections are issued….
The Government has heard from a number of authorities that the extent of
change associated with 2016-based household growth projections, when compared to 2014-based projections, is already resulting in delays and uncertainty in the planmaking process.