300k is getting there
My own MOAN model shows we need around 294,0000 a year if we are to get an affordability increase of 20% (the old NHPAU target) though this falls to around 264,000 if labour market gaps from increased house building are not filled from abroad (at a consequent blow to GDP).
But precious little here about how to double housebuilding, all announcements around the edges.
Housebuilder need a 3 year surplus of land banks over annual completions to navigate through the planning process, since the NPPF came in however their typical land bank are 5 years – too much. Also there is a much bigger problem with land owners and land promoters holding back land, especially in London. His delay till Spring however is a cop out to cover cabinet disagreements. What will it show – the big problem is the failure of the duty to cooperate to fill the gap left by strategic planning? We know that already the authors of the NPPF in the LPEG report acknowledge that – so lets do something about it by driving the first obvious step – the Oxford-MK-Cambridge Strategy forward.