Barely a week after we reported on the likely overspill from London we get a revised figure for the target in the revised London Plan. 66,000 per annum. Far higher than the 50,000/annum the Mayor has stated it would be in speeches and way higher than the current (higher than estimated capacity) figure of 42,000/annum. In the last London plan examination in public the panel criticised the Mayor for arguing the shortfall would somehow magically turn up. This time they will need a far stronger justification – such as increasing London Density Matrix figures by 64% (a typical overshoot these days anyway) or loss of large areas of strategic employment sites.or MOL etc. etc.
This increases our calculation of the likely London Overspill – as follows.
All of the calculations are updated to reflect the new target.
|OAN per year to 2052 Annualised||Current London Plan Target||Employment led (Oxford E)||Revised London Plan Target||Total 2016-2032||Total 2016-2052|
- 1,260,000 dwellings = 10,500 40 Storey Tower Blocks
Hong Kong Worlds Tallest urban agglomeration has 1,303 = up to
7.9 Hong Kongs of Tower Blocks
Do we want to see this Asian Style Vertical Sprawl?
- Evidence strongly that at these densities diseconomies of congestion strongly outweigh positive urban agglomeration effects (Rappaport 2008)
- Mayor of London – Post Grenfell – looking at alternative to tower blocks in
Revised London Plan.
- At 10 Storey Olympic Village Density – 335 DPH needs 1,791 Ha – 112.5 Olympic Villages, 131.8 Aylesbury Estates – 14.5 sq miles – Westminster=8.29 Sq miles
- Much greater than All Large Scale Housing Estates in London Capable of Demolition 1,750 HA (Complete Streets/Savills for Cabinet Office 2015)
- At Least £5 billion cost of demolition plus cost of rehousing – we know post Grenfell nowhere to decant to.
- At Complete Streets favoured mansion block density 135 dph only capable of 1/5 this number
- Equivalent to 18 Park Royals at Complete Streets Densities
- So at Complete Streets densities need to knock down all of London’s Large Estates, All its Strategic Employment Sites and then start knocking down large parts of semi detached London
- Every City that has tried development on this scale and density in recent years – e.g. Moscow, Harare, Seoul has seen mass protest, mass corruption, failure of developers after mass demolitions, overcrowding from decants and political climbdowns. Unlikely to be possible in a democracy.
If the density matrix is changed wont completions change. Arguable and uncertain as to extent as most schemes in London are well above the density matrix standards anyway. Detailed work is needed on the London Development Database to determine how much if any new uplift there would be. Most likely completions will remain at between 25-45,000 units per annum they have been either side of the great recession. The only effect therefore of raising the target will be to increase the height to which London tries to jump over and fails, exporting then the problem to the wider with east as overspill.