Brexit will Lead to More Household Formation and More Demand for Housing

We all already hearing calls from some campaign groups to slow preparation of some local plans to reassess their estimations of OAN.   The assumption being less immigration.

However there is n certainty that there will be less immigration and the Brexit campaign was very careful not to set down any numbers.  Some like Danieal Hannah state that there will be no impact.  Why?

Replacement of the current system by an Australian style points system will lead to a shift in the type of labour – towards the high skilled labour required by export oriented industries.  Therefore there will be less demand for shared accommodation for low skilled immigrants – a type of housing increasing predominant in London, and increased demand for housing suitable for these high skilled immigrants – such as furnished serviced apartments.  Indeed trading cities and rapidly growing cities such as Dubai have large amounts of such accommodation to cater for this demographic.  The key issue being you can share existing accommodation but serviced apartments require new development to provide for as by definition they will be new households.

One thought on “Brexit will Lead to More Household Formation and More Demand for Housing

  1. Interesting read as ever, thank you.

    Even if immigration were to come down it would take several years to be reflected in future projections so little hope in seeing that influence OAN.

    However my own local authority seems keen to grow and is using an ‘economic scenario’ to deliver a high OAN – Taking a 20 year jobs creation guesstimate and accelerating domestic migration to fill these jobs (whether they come or not).

    The economic impact of Brexit makes the base jobs guesstimate more suspect than ever.

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