New 2012 Based Sub National Household Projections Published – No Need to Panic

Here

As everyone has been saying, interpret with care because of concealed household and supressed household formation during a period of recession, only 1,000 pa less than 2011 based interim projections, so for those about to publish their SHMAs, dont panic.

Highlights

The number of households in England is projected to increase from 22.3 million in 2012 to 27.5 million in 2037.

Annual average household growth is projected as 210,000 per year between 2012 and 2037.

Average household size is projected to fall from 2.36 in 2012 to 2.21 in 2037.

Over the period from 2012 to 2022, annual average household growth is projected as 220,000 per year, comparable with 2011-based Interim Household Projections figure of 221,000 from 2011 to 2021.

The 2012-based Household Projections have a very similar rate of household growth 2011-based Interim projections of the comparable period from 2012 to 2022. For this period, the 2012-based projection show an annual average of 220.0 thousand per year compared with 220.5 thousand per year between 2011 and 2021 in the previous Interim Projections. Comparing the projected change in household population, the 2012-based projections show a growth of 7 per cent between 2012 and 2022. This compares with 9 per cent between 2011 and 2021 in the previous Interim Projections. The 2012-based household projections show has higher rate of household growth than the Interim Projections despites a slower increase in household population. The lower population growth has been offset by higher projected household formation.

They perhaps could more clearly have put it the other way round, the lower population growth offsets a slightly higher rate of projected household formation, producing a slighting lower number of projected households.

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