Why Salmond will have the last laugh at the General Election

Take the latest calculations from the polls from Electoral Calculus.

Current Prediction: Labour short 24 of majority

 

Party 2010 Votes 2010 Seats Pred Votes Pred Seats
CON 36.97% 307 31.82% 263
LAB 29.66% 258 32.72% 302
LIB 23.56% 57 7.72% 16
UKIP 3.17% 0 17.58% 0
NAT 2.26% 9 4.27% 50
MIN 4.37% 19 5.90% 19

The Conservatives might claim victory with Milliband flailing but could not form a majoprity even if UKIP won 15 or so seats and with the help of the Unionists and Libs.

The only viable candidate for coalition with labour would be the Nats, and they would claim their pound of flesh, even potentially voting Milliband becoming PM, Salmond for Deputy Pm and Foreign Minister?

The only response would be for the Cons to offer the Nats everything, 100% of taxes, in return for a confidence and supply agreement and support of EVEL.  This would do the Cons limited good however given the collapse in the labour vote north of the border.  The rise of the Nats is like 30-40 labour seats switching to another left of centre party..

This scenario would be almost equally bad for Cameron.  The only hope would be to offer for sacrifice a major policy or three (such as the bedroom ax and Universal credit) in support for reform of constituency boundaries previously vetoed by clegg.  This would mean a CON-LIB coalition with UN confidence and support would be viable.  This would be presented as a renewal of the coalition and give the libs a poll boost.  Cameron needs to rescue them.  The electoral maths are completely against him.  If tht happened Labour would have to ditch Milliband like  hot coal.

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