Amber Valley Inspector on Need – Cautions Against Projecting Forward Recessionary Trends

Key Para from initial questions.  Yet another finding against assumption of continued low headship rates.

Recent independent advice on the assessment of housing needs is contained in the Planning Advisory Service paper ‘Ten key principles for owning your housing number – finding your objectively assessed need’. This in turn refers to the interactive web tool ‘What homes where’ which provides a ready source for any local planning authority to derive household projections for its area and compare trends with nearby areas. ‘What homes where’ advises that caution should be adopted in using alternative assumptions from those in the toolkit and strongly advises reading the Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research report CCHPR report ‘Choice of Assumptions in Forecasting Housing Requirements’ before doing so. In particular the web tool advises applying caution if the trends experienced in the past 5 years reflect a period of particular economic decline or buoyancy. It indicates that projecting forward recessionary trends may lead to concealed households not being catered for and a consequent underestimate of the true level of household change. Town and Country Planning ‘Tomorrow Series Paper 16 (‘New estimates of housing demand and need in England, 2011 to 2031’) by Alan Holmans also assesses the possible implications of underestimating need on the basis of the 2011 census.

3 thoughts on “Amber Valley Inspector on Need – Cautions Against Projecting Forward Recessionary Trends

  1. If caution is advised when “trends experienced in the past 5 years reflect a period of particular economic buoyancy” then this presumably this also applies to the 2008-based household projection which relies on an observation period which straddles the largest global credit bubble in history?

  2. The recent RTPI paper points out that there is considerable uncertainty as to what will happen to household formation over the next twenty years. The chances are that over a plan period of 15 years or more there are going to be periods of economic growth as well as recession. It is a fair question to ask as to whether the credit driven boom that fuelled growth before the specatular downturn will ever happen again?

  3. You missed out on the fact that the Inspector seems hugely concerned that the largest housing sites have not been tested for ‘viability’. In addition, the Inspector also criticises the plan because it contains typos and basic grammatical errors! As an ordinary member of the public, I find this extraordinary-it seems like the plan has been ‘thrown together’ !

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