Capitalism’s Last Frontier#14 A Sedentary Life

Permanent human settlement (sedentism), lasting more than a season, requires local resources, both food and water, within easy walking distance of the settlement, available all year around.

The introduction of agriculture requires sedentism, but it is difficult to see how both could arise simultaneously. The intensification of gathering and gradual plant selection and intentional sowing requires some form of sedentism in the first instance.

Indeed we do find several such neolithic culture, notably the Natfian, which developed sedentism before agriculture and which shows the earliest clear evidence of permanent village settlement in the middle east. This culture existed in the Levant from around 13,500 to 10,500 BP. This culture had abundant natural resources and gathered wild grain. Although there villages show no evidence of storage there is some evidence for the deliberate cultivation of cereals, specifically rye from around 11,00BP. The Tell Abu Hureyra site, which is the site for earliest evidence of agriculture in the world. Another example is the Joam in Japan ( c. 13000 to 11000 BP with some evidence of rice cultivation late in this period).

There were of course villages before in the middle east but evidence from middens show that earlier villages were nomadic seasonal camps, showing evidence of trans-huminance amongst hunter gatherers. In a permanent settlement you need a site for rubbish close to but outside the settlement, a midden, to avoid a dangerous pile up of garbage, and the earliest we know we find in the Natafian culture.

There is even tantalisingly evidence of sedentism elsewhere in earlier interglacials, during the Upper Paleolithic in Moravia in Europe and on the Russian Plain already during the interval of c. 25000-17000 BC. We return then to the question of why in these periods agriculture did not develop? It would appear that the conditions in the middle east around 11,000 BP were ideal. Again we return to the issue of favourable local climatic conditions in the levant at the beginning of the Holcene.

Sedentism places a pressure on local resources, abundant local resources will lead to a rapid increase in population putting pressure on wild grains etc. This will have created pressure for more intense forms of growing, in due course leading to agriculture but only if conditions are favorable.

Ester Boserup’s Population Pressure view is that population growth is the major determining factor. Given rising population pressure, people invented agriculture life in order to feed themselves.

Today such a unicausal thesis is challenged. The discovery of multiple sites of sedentism before agriculture suggests that humankind lives in locations where population would have grown, but despite the pressures this caused this did not trigger agricultural innovation, as far as we know, until one such period in one region. This suggest that sedentary groups must have developed balanced equilibrium with the local environment. They live in a state of systemic balance where change is the exception rather than the rule. This keeps numbers below the carrying capacity of local food resources. “What will stimulate change in this static situation?”

The idea that agriculture developed as a conscious adaptation has also been challenged – the ‘paradigm of consciousness’ -by Davis Rindos. (The Origins of Agriculture: An Evolutionary Perspective David Rindos Academic Press 1984) . Evolutionary approaches, tracing the coeveolution of the development of plants and humans (as set out in the previous chapter) creates a systemic homeostasis which does not require conscious adaptation, rather gradual adaptation is a evolved response. However sudden change, such as climatic change, can force innovation, and those that don’t innovate will not survive.

Cuyler Smith & Philip Smith’s thesis accepts that population pressure was the causal factor for the emergence of domestication but climatically induced population growth around the beginning of the Holocene stimulated domestication then agriculture, initially in the sedentary zones of the Levant.

Lewis Binford and Kent Flannery extend this systemic approach by focussing on the relationship between population pressure, environment and subsistence strategies. There thesis is that population change forced migration into areas of less optimum food resources – the hilly flanks. This extension of, not yet fully a margin of cultivation but a margin of intensive gathering, into more marginal and less productive land. This overpopulation created systemic imbalance in areas where there were inadequate wild food resources for the expanded populations. The invention of agriculture occurred in these regions to recover systemic equilibrium at a different subsistence level.

This change may have been the brief onset of dryer conditions in the lower dryas, this would have meant that villages could maintain lower populations forcing migration.

A similar approach is found in the more recent work of Ofer Bar-Yosef and Anna Belfer-Cohen (JOURNAL OF WORLD PREHISTORY Volume 3, Number 4, 447-498, DOI: 10.1007/BF00975111). They trace groups who made changes in subsistence strategies, which, in the southern Levant, led to sedentism in base camps on edge (ecotone) of the Mediterranean woodland-parkland and the Irano-Turanian steppe.

The relatively cold and dry climate of the Lower Dryas of the eleventh millennium B.P. forced innovation to intensify cultivation. The early Holocene onset of wetter and warmer conditions favored the earliest Neolithic development of village life based on the cultivation of barley and legumes, and continued gathering of wild seeds and fruits and hunting.

Evidence suggest that nodamism continued in in a parallel fashion for several thousand years, until somewhat more sites turned to sedentism, and gradually agricultural sedentism.

Air-Conditioning Troops in Iraq and Afghanistan Costs $20.2 billion a year – more than NASA

From NPR

To power an air conditioner at a remote outpost in land-locked Afghanistan, a gallon of fuel has to be shipped into Karachi, Pakistan, then driven 800 miles over 18 days to Afghanistan on roads that are sometimes little more than “improved goat trails,” Anderson says. “And you’ve got risks that are associated with moving the fuel almost every mile of the way.”

..more than 1,000 troops have died in fuel convoys, which remain prime targets for attack. Free-standing tents equipped with air conditioners in 125 degree heat require a lot of fuel.

experiments with polyurethane foam insulation for tents in Iraq cut energy use by 92 percent and took 11,000 fuel trucks off the road. But …there’s a lack of enthusiasm for a greener military among top commanders.

“People look at it and say ‘It’s not my lane. We don’t need to tie the operational commanders’ hands’ — things like this”

National Planning Policy Framework Forensics #34 Energy Minerals

This section replaces MPS3 a> Coal mining and colliery spoil disposal

The test for coal extraction is the samje as that in para.8 of MPS3 bar the uncesseary cross references to other policy areas.

What is missing however is the clear circumspection on open cast from MPS3 para. 7

the Government takes the view that, although some sites are capable of being well restored, opencast mining can be extremely damaging to the environment and amenity of a locality whilst it is taking place, and the restored landscape can take many years to mature. The proposals for restoration, and the extent to which the proposal provides local or community benefits must be weighed against theseverity of the harm likely to be caused during the duration of the development and the time it would take for the landscape to regenerate following restoration.

Although many have campaigned for a ban on opencast successive governments have taken the view that this would be excessive given that this is a relatively cheap source of energy, and, as MPS3 para. 8 states, the decision should be left to local authorities. The revised wording raises the prospect of many planning appeals for opencast.

MPS3 though is archaic, from 1999, and well before the consideration of carbon impacts. This is a key missing element from the MPS. Now it is unclear from the NPPF whether the phrase ‘environmentally acceptable means consideration of carbon impacts?

Increased mining, except at very high oil prices, is only likely to be economic for opencast and then for use in coal burning power stations. Carbon capture can only be assured at new stations and even then we dont know if this will be economic & no emmissions performance standard for ‘clean coal’ has been agreed.

Carbon capture and methane storage are new elements to the policy.

Other aspects of the policy appear just to be a precis of current policy.

China Daily ‘Local govts run up huge debts, risk defaulting’

The realities of this issue, much discussed on here, is finally hitting home:

Local governments had an overall debt of 10.7 trillion yuan ($1.65 trillion) by the end of 2010, said China’s top auditor on Monday in a report to the National People’s Congress.

He warned that some were at risk of defaulting on payments.

It was the first time the world’s second-largest economy publicly announced the size of its local governments’ debts. The scale amounts to more than one-quarter of its GDP in 2010, which stood at 39.8 trillion yuan.

Concerns are rising that the problem of local government debt could destabilize the financial system of the country if it is not managed properly, especially after the central government’s tightening of the housing market, which could affect local fiscal revenue that is highly dependent on land sales and make debt repayment more difficult.

Beijing planned to clean up billions in local government debt by shifting 2-3 trillion yuan of debt off the books of local governments, Reuters reported, quoting anonymous sources.

Local governments have used their off-budget investment arms to tap into the flood of bank lending unleashed during the stimulus programs, and have channeled those funds into local infrastructure projects, not all of which are based on solid commercial foundations, said the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in a report.

Fitch Inc, a major international rating institution, lowered its outlook of China’s long-term local-currency rating to “negative” from “stable” in April, saying there is a “high likelihood of a significant deterioration” in banks’ asset quality within three years.

Bad loans could rise to between 15 and 30 percent of the total, with concern about the quality of lending compounded by growth in off-balance-sheet credit, Bloomberg cited Fitch as saying.

Li Yang, deputy head of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a prominent government think tank, said that worries about the local government debt issue are unnecessary as long as the country maintains comparatively high economic growth.

“A possible debt crisis will only loom large when the economy slows down to some extent,” said Li, indicating over-tightening by the central bank to curb inflation should be avoided to win time and space for issues such as repaying the debt.

The key risk is whether the current fall in house prices in overheated China will stop at 10-15% or hit 20-30%, if the latter it will trigger default with a banking crisis and deflation – be warned.

National Planing Policy Framework Forensics#33 Minerals – Landbanks & Application Determination

The practitioners draft contains a section on the supply pipeline.  The key section is:

liaise with neighbouring authorities to co-ordinate the planning of locally important minerals or with more distant authorities where those authorities also host minerals of greater than local importance

There is no general equivalent statement in the existing MPS1, it has different approaches for different types of mineral.

The period for landbanks seven years of sand and gravel and 10 years for crushed rock, is as in MPS1 para 4.1, but the industry will rightly regret the loss of ‘A landbank below these levels indicates that additional reserves will need to be permitted if acceptable planning applications are submitted.’ For brick clay the landbank period is reduced from 15 years to 10. There is no longer a requirement to identify landbanks for peat.

The policy on protected areas, national parks etc. is turned around, so that rather than giving special consideration in these areas the onus is to identify permitted reserves outside them. This will give significant additional protection to such protected areas, but the status of local quarries for materials for use in historic builldings is unclear as drafted.

I cannot detect any real shifts in policy in the areas of safeguarding, or restoration & aftercare.

Environmental Impact 

Comparing with MPS2 (paras 11 &12)

NPPS MPSs
set out environmental criteria, in line with the policies in this National Planning Policy Framework, against which planning applications will be assessed so as to ensure that permitted operations do not have unacceptable adverse impacts on the environment or human health, including from dust, tip and quarry-slope stability, differential settlement of quarry backfill and migration of contamination from the site; 

Development plan policies and proposals for minerals extraction and associated development should take into account:

  • the impacts of mineral working, such as visual intrusion, dewatering, water pollution, noise, dust and fine particulates, blasting and traffic;
  • the impacts on landscape, agricultural land, soil resources, ecology and wildlife, including severance of landscape and habitat loss, and impacts on sites of nature conservation,
  • archaeological and cultural heritage value….
  • the methods of control through planning conditions or agreements to ensure that impacts are kept to an acceptable minimum.
  • Policies and proposals should take into account the level of existing activity and impacts, the duration and nature of proposals for new or further working, and the extent of impacts which a particular site, locality, community, environment or wider area of mineral working can reasonably be expected to tolerate over a particular or proposed period. With respect to an individual site, the effect of all relevant impacts (i.e. of noise, dust, traffic, on landscape etc.) should be considered objectively. Impacts that are acceptable individually should not be regarded as unacceptable in combination without a proper assessment. MPAs should also have regard where relevant to cumulative impacts of simultaneous and/or successive working of a number of sites in a wider area of commercially-viable deposits

The requirement to set out fixed criteria is difficult as many issues such as dust, it is difficult to set a wholly objective measure.  The previous ‘take into account’ factor seems more reasonable, especially for cases where there is as yet no up to date development plan.  The proposed NPPF wording would make it unclear whether these environmental matters can be fully considered where there is as yet no plan policy.

It is unclear why key issues, such as noise, traffic, impact on landscape etc. have been left off, whilst an issue taken from MPS5, differential settlement, which only affects re-use/aftercare for built development is included.  It would be better if it said as a seperate issue ‘the afteruse of mineral workings should take account of land stability isses including differential backfill’

The ‘reasonably expected to tolerate’ test is a key one and should be maintained.

No reference to minimum seperation distances as considered in MPS2.

The draft includes two paras on environmental impacts, one on plans, the ther on applications, which is needless duplication.

Overall I would suggest this section is reworded as follows:

The decision maker, in developing local plans, and determining planning applications, should ensure that  permitted operations do not have unacceptable adverse impacts on the environment or human health, including from dust, noise, traffic, impact on the landscape, impact on habitat, impact on water (dewatering and water pollution), tip and quarry-slope stability, and migration of contamination from the site, and impacts on cultural heritage and the landscape.  Consideration should also be given to cumulative and successive impacts. Minimum separation distances should be considered on a case by case basis and take into account the extent of impacts a locality can reasonably be expected to tolerate (taking account of the extent and timing of working).

The Draft contains a section on factors to be considered in considerations applications which mainly are a few key chucks of current policy which need to be retained. Just three small points on this section.  The reference to restoration should include ‘& aftercare’ they both have statutory defintion.  Secondly the section on relic quarries should also apply to plan making.  Finally there is a big shift in how to consider economic issues.

Current policy (MPS1)

maintain an adequate and steady supply of minerals for the economy and society, commensurate with protecting the environment and securing the prudent use of natural resources

Proposed Policy NPPF

give significant weight to the benefits of the mineral extraction, including to the economy

Note no reference to balencing this with protecting the environment and prudent use of natural resources.  A hybrid para is suggested

give significant weight to the benefits of the mineral extraction, including to the economy, subject to adequately protecting the environment and ensuring prudent use of natural resources in the long term.

The next final section on minerals will consider energy resources.

Archaeologists Furious At Fenland’s bunnyhugger bashing leader

We mentioned the infamous ‘bunnyhuggers‘ speech last week.

The Guardian

Dr Tony Pollard, director of the Centre for Battlefield Archaeology at the University of Glasgow, reflected the anxieties of many: “My worry as someone far away from the Fens – though I fully appreciate their archaeological importance – is that this could mark the thin end of the wedge, with the recession being used as an excuse to trash our national archaeological heritage in the name of economic recovery.”…

According to the online version of the Eastern Daily Press article, Melton emailed Conservative party colleagues to say: “I don’t tweet, but what a wonderful day. To be attacked by bunny huggers, historic lefties, and the vested interested professional classes. Eric Pickles will be extremely proud of me.”

The best treatment is in the Eastern Daily Press

Tonight umbrella group the Archaeology Forum said the speech had sparked “anger and disbelief” among archaeological community.

In a statement, it said: “Archaeology Forum members have been in dialogue with English Heritage and with Cambridgeshire County Council today to coordinate action in response to the statements made on behalf of Fenland District Council earlier this week.

“In the meantime, we can clarify a number of issues. The suggestion in news reports that national planning policy for the historic environment (PPS5) – and in particular the requirement for pre-application archaeological assessment – will no longer apply to FDC’s planning decisions and will be ‘suspended’ from 1 July is incorrect.”

The forum said the archaeology of the Fens was of “national and international importance”.

“The fragile equilibrium that maintains the exceptionally preserved sites of the Fens’ prehistoric and early communities is vulnerable to uncontrolled development,” it added.

“Current planning policy works well to ensure that the most important sites are managed in a way that protects them while still allowing new development to take place.”

Earlier today, the 3,000-strong Institute for Archaeologists said it was aware of the article on edp24 and Mr Melton’s comments were “particularly concerning”.

In a statement published on its website, it added: “IfA is aware of a recent article on http://www.edp24.co.uk reporting the planned relaxation of planning regulations, particularly in relation to the historic environment, by Fenland District Council in order to encourage new development.

“Alleged comments regarding the proposed abandonment of archaeological survey are particularly concerning and IfA will be contacting the council to ascertain the facts of the matter and to seek reassurance that existing historic environment planning policy and legislation will continue to be upheld.”

Mr Melton’s comments drew a flurry of tweets and e-mails. But today he appeared unrepentant.

One archaeologist said he had contacted Mr Melton about his remarks.

“I did email Mr Melton yesterday evening pointing out that what he was attempting to do was illegal under EU law, and that it would make the planning process slower and more expensive,” he said. 

“I received a reply from him this morning which simply read: ‘Long live Eric Pickles’. I assume this is what passes for reasoned debate in his part of the world, or may be an attempt at humour.”

So an unlawful approach to planning which will slow down planning, sums up the Pickensian philosophy.

Stop Press :93% of readers of the Eastern Daily Press, according to an online poll disagree with Melton

Why no ‘one cent jobs’ – the flawed marginal productivity theory of wages

Karl Smith at Modelled Behaviour has an argument which sums up the flaws in the neo-classical theory of wages.

Suppose that Michigan autoworkers lost their jobs and their wages fell to One Cent per Year. Well at One Cent per Year I could hire armies of men to scrub my house by hand, to take out the garbage, to walk behind me recording every thought I had and double checking that every appointment was made and kept.

At one cent per year there are millions of extremely easy uses and worthwhile uses for labor.

If we accept that the labor market would clear at One Cent Per Year. Then the question is why has the labor market not cleared while at the same time the wage has not dropped to One Cent Per Year.

There are lots of reasons why we can think that this hasn’t happened but this is – at least in my mind – the central question. We know that we can profitably employ everyone in America at some wage. So why is there a prevailing wage at which people are not employed?

No-one will rationally work if the wages they receive are less than the costs of purchasing energy from food equal to the energy expended working, and of course getting to work and sleeping, because you have to be alive to be an employee.

So wages will never fall to a cent, workers have to be better off than their current position not working, they need to cover there costs of working, eating, sleeping (housing) and getting to and from work before they have a cent of disposable income. It not like the nonsense Robert Lucas spouts of most unemployed workers enjoying being unemployed, neither is ‘sticky’ wages the key issue, rather it is wages cannot be infinatessibily adjustable downwards for these physical reasons.

This is one issue that the marginal productivity theory of wages cannot deal with, and to my mind it is a black swan issue showing it is irretrievably flawed.

The founders of classical economics, Petty and Cantillon understood this, food reproduction costs and transport costs set a floor on wages (and create the basis of rent but that’s another story).

If no business processes require skilled labour and there was an infinitely elastic supply of labour it is fairly easy to show that competition will bring down wages to this ‘reproducibility’ level – Ricardo was right.

If there is a requirement of types of labour that are in short supply it is also fairly easy to show that this results in quasi-rents on that element of wages.

Finally although there may be a range of jobs available a worker with no savings may be forced to take the first job available. They in effect are insuring themselves for the minimum period of the contract against the risk of being forced back to subsistence, This accounts for a gap between quasi-rents and marginal productivity. This level also depends on the interest rate (so there are labour fallacies as well as capital fallacies in neo-classical theory).

Add up all three elements and they fully account for wages, and each has completely different dynamics and is explained by different equations.

Wages are not set by marginal productivity, rather marginal productivity is an ex post residuum of the decision to expand or contract production, and the additional doses capital/labour ratio needed to do so given the productivity and costs of a particular technique.Because capital and labour are indivisible in such decisions the marginal theory of productivity contains a hidden assumption, a hidden capital theory fallacy.

Decisions on employment are of course marginal but the marginal theory of productivity is just plain wrong because it tries to squeeze three different margins taken by different actors into one.

Planning Decisions & Localism as an Ethical Issue – A Philosophers Take

Localism, as currently presented, presents complex issues that require exploration of their implications rather than treating it as a predetermined moral good.

A recent book by the American Philosopher  Robert Kirkman has an original take on this issue – looking at planning decisions as an ethical issue.

The Ethics of Metropolitan Growth- The Future of our Built Environment (April 2010)

Kirkman’s key issue is whether a place either constrains us or enables us to seek the good life.  The second consideration is how the identified good is distributed among people. Is it fair? The third consideration is how the identified good is distributed through time. Will it last? Finally, there’s the question of process, is it legiminate?

Kirkman recognises that planning issues raise difficult issues of justice, one person benefitting from a good place, might be excluding others.  A person with liberty to build where they like may be harming issues of well being valued by the people already living in the locality.  This become even more difficult when it comes to the issue of what scale a decision should be made.

“To the extent all of the different ranges of government pull against one another, each asserting its own rights and prerogatives, there is less likely to be an effective response to problems in the built environment. Perhaps most important, there is often a mismatch between the scale of problems and the scale of government authority with the power to address them.”

Kirkman conderiders the issue of housing allocations.   Almost everyone values a sufficient amount of housing affordable to residents with the range of incomes somewhere in their wider region, but the same people can exhbit Nimby tendencies about putting it in their own neighborhood, and few homeowners want to see their own  home become more affordable through increasing supply.

This of course is a classic case of the fallacy of composition, that the aggregation of individual and locality decisions about housing locally does not reflect the community will about housing nationally.

Approaching this problem with too small a scale, and you get inefficient fragmentation; too large a scale, and you’re apt to be insulated from what citizens actually want for their own community.

Kirkman therefore promotes decision making on housing allocations based on regions which arn’t too large for individuals and localities to participate in.

Planners would recognise this as planning on a sub-regional scale.

It is interesting then to see a coherent argument that decisions on metropolitan growth taken at too smal a scale can be unethical.

National Planning Policy Framework Forensics #32 Minerals – Objectives

Not looking forward to this section because of the sheer length of minerals planning guidance/statements.

The task is not so severe though as the vast majority of these notes are technical guidance rather than policy and could find themselves in some form of future good practice guide.

The areas of specific policy break down into two sections, firstly the general policy in MPS1 and to a lesser extent some resource specific policy for coal, peat and silica sand.  I shall therefore focus on these areas although I sure specialists will give a more thorough overview.

Objectives

NPPS MPS1
Minerals are essential to support sustainable economic growth. It is therefore important that there is a sufficient supply of material to provide the infrastructure, buildings, energy and goods that the country needs. The Government’s objective for the planning system is to:

  • secure an adequate and steady supply of indigenous minerals needed to support sustainable growth; whilst encouraging the recycling of suitable materials to minimise the requirement for new primary extraction; and
  • facilitate sustainable use of energy minerals.

 

The Government’s objectives for minerals planning reflect the requirement to contribute to the achievement of sustainable development, as required by Section 39of the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004. These are:

  • to ensure, so far as practicable, the prudent, efficient and sustainable use of minerals and recycling of suitable materials, thereby minimising the requirement for new primary extraction;
  • to conserve mineral resources through appropriate domestic provision and timing of supply;
  • to safeguard mineral resources as far as possible;
  • to prevent or minimise production of mineral waste;
  • to secure working practices which prevent or reduce as far as possible, impacts on the environment and human health arising from the extraction, processing, management or transportation of minerals;
  • to protect internationally and nationally designated areas of landscape value and nature conservation importance from minerals development, other than in the exceptional circumstances detailed in paragraph 14 of this statement;
  • to secure adequate and steady supplies of minerals needed by society and the economy within the limits set by the environment, assessed through sustainability appraisal, without irreversible damage;
  • to maximise the benefits and minimise the impacts of minerals operations over their full life cycle;
  • to promote the sustainable transport of minerals by rail, sea or inland waterways;
  • to protect and seek to enhance the overall quality of the environment once extraction has ceased, through high standards of restoration, and to safeguard the long-term potential of land for a wide range of after-uses;
  • to secure closer integration of minerals planning policy with national policy on sustainable construction and waste management and other applicable environmental protection legislation; and
  • to encourage the use of high quality materials for the purposes for which they are most suitable

The current objectives are lengthy and slip into policy areas rather than objectives and can be cut down. Also cross references to policy on matters such as nature conservation importance are unnecessary because of the principle of reading policy documents as a whole.  There is also very confusingly a shorter and slightly different set of objectives in MPS2 compared to MPS1.

The use of the words ‘sustainable’ and minerals in the same sentence always poses logical problems because minerals by their nature are a non-renewable resource.  It is appropriate to talk of prudent use of minerals, but not there sustainable use unless there is 100% sourcing from secondary supply.  The reference to ‘limits set by the environment’ a key component of sustainability is deleted.

The deletion of the references to prudence, conservation of supplies and limits of the environment, and the focus on material input growth above all factors, all logically imply an acceleration of extraction, without concern for prudence or conservation and without concern for the natural limits set by geology.  The draft is deliberately promoting an unsustainable approach to minerals, in effect a presumption in favour of unsustainable development in this field.  

This is a major shift in policy.

The lack of any reference to mitigation of impact, and appropriate aftercare of sites are major gaps.

I would suggest the section is reworded as follows:

Minerals are essential to support economic growth, but the environment sets limits on supplies.  The objective is is prudent use of minerals resources, balancing the need to secure supplies for future generations with the need to secure an adequate and steady supply of materials and energy sources today – whilst shifting increasingly to secondary (recycled) sources and less constrained substitute materials and energy sources where practical, as well as ensuring proper restoration and aftercare of site.   

This approach will allow some increase in current primary extraction rates where it helps support a rapid adoption of technologies which move towards a sustainable use of materials and energy sources.

The essence of this suggested national policy is a quid-pro quo, you can increase extraction, but if and only it helps use move towards a sustainable economy.  This should provide a very clear and strong incentive to the industry.