Census suggests Housing Requirements back to Mid-Noughties Levels
The number of households in England is set to rise by a fifth in the next 20 years to 27m, creating massive demand for new homes which is unlikely to be met, according to the first long-term projections based on data from the last census.
Between 240,000 and 245,000 homes a year will be needed to accommodate the growing population, the report, launched on Tuesday by the Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research and the Town and Country Planning Association, found.
Of these, nearly two-thirds will be needed in the south, and nearly a quarter of all housing need will be in London, according to the report.
About 100,000 new homes are being built each year at present – the lowest levels of peacetime housebuilding since the 1920s – leaving a deficit of about 120,000 a year.
Over the course of the next 20 years that would mean 2.4m homes needed would not be built.
The research is the first time that data from the 2011 census has been used to project future housing needs over the next 20 years.
Although the number of working-age households recently fell for the first time in nearly two decades, this will not mean fewer homes need to be built, the researchers said.
Professor Christine Whitehead, who helped produce the report, said: “The 2011 census found that the population was significantly higher than projections had expected. The main message [from our report] is that the population increase is significant enough to offset the slowdown in household formation.”
Because of the types of households predicted to form, a third of all new housing will need to receive some form of public subsidy, the TCPA said.
Kate Henderson, chief executive of the TCPA, said: “We have a hopelessly inadequate supply of housing and a serious backlog, as well as chronic affordability problems. We urgently need a new vision for housing and the development of new communities.”
She called for a wave of new settlements to be built, “whether as part of urban regeneration or through new garden cities”.
This suggests that those plans that have revised their forecasts down on the basis of the 2011 based forecasts will need to revise them back down again. we are back overall to the level of household formation from RSS. Of course if the housing market continues to recover and this is not another bubble we may see HH formation hit 260+ a year.