The Source of Teresa May’s Comment on Immigration Adding 10% to House Prices

In a speech today Teresa May claimed

One area in which we can be certain mass immigration has an effect is housing.

“More than one third of all new housing demand in Britain is caused by immigration.

And there is evidence that without the demand caused by mass immigration, house prices could be 10 per cent lower over a 20 year period.” 

She also said in future the impact of immigration on house prices would be included in government impact assessments.

The source

Evidence by Professor Stephen Nickell to the House of Lords Select Committee on Immigration in 2008. Para 171. when he was chair of the NHPAU which of course the government has now abolished. We don’t know the source but we can imagine it was the defunct NHPAU model, so how the government intends to incorporate this into impact assessments in the future without any model I don’t know.

Of course it is meaningless talking about house prices on the demand curve side of things without talking about the supply curve and the impact that immigration has had on lowering housebuilding and renovation costs, as well as the impact on GDP / head it has which of course makes housing affordable in the first instance.  The same report concluded that immigration enlarged the economy as a whole but the impact on GDP/head was small for the existing population but large for the immigrant population.

I hope Teresa May has learnt the lesson from the US on the success a vote for us if your native and we close off opportunities for members of your family if your not had at the last election , and how it will have more and more negative impact over time.  It is hard to imagine too how a future conservative majority can be secured without a big win in London, which from the census we now know is majority non-white.  The path to victory for the conservatives lies not with the paloeconservative policies of May but with those of Boris Johnson.

A small point but Professor Nickell’s evidence was not looking at the impact of mass immigatation but the hypothetical impact of no immigration at all, no one outside UKIP or BNP

 

 

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About andrew lainton

International Urban Planner

Posted on December 12, 2012, in political economy. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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